Government shutdown? No surprise.

Today, October 1, the US Government ran into a self inflicted partial shutdown.  People who had no ability to avoid it will be laid off without pay.  The men and women who could have reached agreement on a budget, imperfect as it was, but who failed, will still get their $174,000 per year.

Congressional representatives and Senators are without risk. No skin in the game.  They redistribute other peoples money, not their own.

I trust that this shutdown, on the eve  of the US Government 's need to borrow more money to pay for its endless stream of spending, will cause more negotiation turmoil.

Every pundit and talking head rejects the possibility that the Congress would renege or be untimely in its duty to pay vendors and borrowers.  But those same experts predicted a fed taper that did not happen. They predicted that Congress would avoid a shutdown.

When everyone agrees, it really is a signal to take the other side of the argument.

There may be optimism for a quick solution, because the tea partiers failed to defund Obamacare with the budget.   People will hope that the TP will concede and be reasonable.  But why?  If they were acting on principle and got this far, why would they back off?  In for a penny in for a pound.  Principles aren't for sale.  Even Bloomberg agrees with me in an article posted after this post:  "Congress misses the short putt, and debt relief is much more difficult"

They will be cheered by their true believer constituents and will be rewarded with contributions.  They will be urged to keep up the pressure.  They can say we did not concede our demands and we won't.  Default or not we cannot accept universal health care for all Americans.

I believe that the US will fail to get a debt ceiling deal by Oct. 17.  I also believe that Obama will concede something big immediately after.  He will because he cannot have the US fail on his watch.

My bet is against the pundits and the consensus.  Interesting times indeed.